More tablets than PCs?

There was an article recently where Tim Cook was quoted as saying that tablet sales will outpace PC sales in less than 24 months.

This isn't a shock, and it isn't because of the popularity of the iPad (although that doesn't hurt).

It is about the processor that is going into the new iPhone 5s, and likely the iPad this fall.

The iPhone 5s has been benchmarked in some tests as faster than a 2008 MacBook Pro and a 2010 Mac Mini. Think about that for a second…a phone is faster than a more recent computer. I use a 2008 MacBook Pro as my main computer. Certainly, my 4th Generation iPad's screen is far superior (albeit smaller) than my MacBook.

It is pretty clear that the iPad's coming processor (probably the A7X) will have yet another incremental speed boost, and will also probably be a 64 bit processor. My guess is that we're probably not far away from Apple using its own chips in MacBooks, too (probably the MacBook Air for starters).

What this means is that in a very short amount of time, there will be nearly no (if any) trade-off for using a tablet versus a PC. One app developer, who reluctantly went into iOS development, once told me, “Why would I make apps for an iPad? I would have to trade so much functionality to get my (Windows/Mac) program to run on a tablet.”

Well, there is a day coming…perhaps this fall…where the tradeoff becomes negligible.

So why will tablets outsell PCs in 24 months? Because you will get as much performance from a tablet as you do from a traditional PC–and perhaps even better performance as tablet apps are created with user interface as the starting point, whereas user interface seems to be a secondary concern with many Windows/Mac apps.

The world of computing its about to get even more interesting. Time to stand back and watch the fireworks.


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